Investigation the Fluctuations of Exchange rate on the Non-oil Exports in Iran (A Case Study: Iranian caviar)

Abstract

Achieving the appropriate models of the economic development is required to achieve sustainable economic growth and comprehensive development. Experience of the other countries, specially the countries of East Asia suggests that these countries have used the model of export development properly to achieve high and sustainable economic growth. In terms of our country economy of which has always been dependent on oil production and exports in order to earn currency revenues and with respect to the fluctuations of the oil price in the past programs of the economic- social and cultural development of country and amount of the countrys oil reverses and the ability to export it, alternative policy of the Non-oil exports were considered to provide the required currency for the country. In fact in this new point, the domestic industries were encouraged more than ever as well as produce imported goods to the other countries. Caviar is also one of the products that can play a significant role for development of Non-oil exports., in this study we have tried to investigate the factors affecting the export of Iranian caviar, with an emphasis on the foreign exchange rate and by using a auto regressive disturbance lag mode, during a short and a long-term pattern . The results of the analysis indicate that variable of Iranian caviar export level is directly correlated with the variables of production of caviar, actual foreign exchange rate and openness of the economy of Iran and its inversely correlated with the average world price of caviar.
Key words: , , , ARDL method, Iran Problem explanation.